WATERSHED ELECTIONS-DECODING MADHYA PRADESH ASSEMBLY POLL 2018

Shashidhar .S. Kapur

It is not everyday that you call an election a watershed. The Madhya Pradesh Vidhan Sabha election qualifies for this label since it sets a template for the 2019 LS elections. In no other state does Congress have such a galaxy of stalwarts- if they can unite to bring down Shivraj , the same could be attempted by the Grand alliance of regional satraps ( Mahagathbandhan )to topple Modi.

The highest ever voting in the state – seventy five percent-even higher than the Modi wave is being interpreted by Congress as clear majority while BJP sees it as Congress Mukt Madhya Pradesh till Lok Sabha 2019. Three and a half percent higher voting by women than men too is analysed dually- BJP views it as the payback for service rendered to women while Congress claims it as ladies’ seeing through the farce. A higher voting percentage among youth is seen as aspirational by the establishment while the opposition calls it the voice of nearly a crore unemployed .BJP believes that relatively Higher rural percentage in rural areas is thanksgiving by farmers for all round support while Congress is of the opinion that agrarian distress is the reason. Lower voting in urban areas is explained by the shifting vote base of BJP which hasn’t transferred to the Congress and has chosen to stay put. A lower vote in Budhni- the constituency of CM – that too in the face of Ex-PCC chief Arun Yadav as the opponent defies duality. It is unanimously understood as anti- incumbency , albeit in murmurs.

This election is watershed in that it was in the wake of both a movement as also an agitation – of farmers and against the Atrocities Act respectively. These were not mounted by the opposition party but by activists. 2018 was watershed also due to the extent of money involved – though the official figures were around 500 crores , the unofficial version was to the tune of ten times – close to the figure of U.P. elections. This was also the first truly smartphone election in the state which became a parallel electioneering platform.

Yet it is not a landmark election – which it could’ve been if the politics had changed rather than merely tweaking strategies and tactics. Despite initial boasts candidates were not declared in advance; as always manifestos were announced barely a few days before voting and as elections drew closer non- issues and non- party actors took over .Thus the process reformed much more while change was incremental For the first time , it promised to be a truly Multipolar election in Madhya Pradesh – with 5 parties ( BJP, Cong , AAP, BSP & SAPAKS ) announcing to fight on all 230 seats. However towards the end most of them were “managed” and it remained largely a two horse fight on surface – with the pretenders becoming part of the undercurrent.

The twin post modern electoral techniques of controlling the data and managing the headlines were in full display. Too much data and viral videos via WhatsAapp University and Facebook Gurukul left the average voter scatter brained and fickle minded. Mindless debates on non- issues brought the narrative to rock bottom.

Professionals and Bureaucrats emerged as a new constituency with both parties wooing them .Many among them entered the fray and even formed a party of their own – SAPAKS ( Samanya Pichra Alpsankhyak Kalyan Samaj party).Since this was mostly against the Atrocities Act , a counter polarization of Dalit vote happened. While Jatav vote seems to have consolidated with BSP the minor castes too got a voice as part of a complementary coalition- Mahin gathbandhan. Caste politics thus reached a new level of sophistication in Madhya Pradesh.

With all parties promising the moon in their manifestos- hype reached fantastic levels.While BJP outsourced elections to professionals and moneybags Congress self financed and managed it. For most part BJP was on defensive , while Congress played on front foot. In particular , towards the end the BJP Karyakartas were sidelined from key decisions -the RSS , election managers and Amit Shah took over. Congress, on the other hand ,peaked at the right moment and was able to mobilise its feeble network to the maximum.
All throughout the Election commission didn’t exactly cover itself in glory. Initially, between 25 to 40 lakh duplicate voters were discovered in the lists; on the voting day a disproportionate number of EVM machines malfunctioned including the back ups , after voting some of the machines reached 48 hours late in the strong room, the CCTV cameras blanked out for over an hour and postal ballots were found in the police headquarters.
Media was most high decibel yet least effective this time.While Reporters as well as party spokespersons parachuted from Delhi – all they could do was to increase the sound and fury. None of them could guage the undercurrent ; the spokespersons from Delhi frequently bumbled about local issues.

No stone was left unturned to convert the citizen into a robotic or moronic voter. He was bombarded non- stop with information and data , non- issue and concerns; leaders offloaded their “ Man ki Baat” onto him ; in case he recused himself they landed in their numerous yatras at his doorstep; no hoarding or the front page of a newspaper was left without in your face appeals for vote.As for the “ man ki baat” of the voter – his issues and concerns – it was given a token space by seeking suggestions and making a laundry list of them. Money and manpower replaced ideologies and commitment.

While on the surface the big ferocious game was between Shivraj and all the Congress satraps , another vicious dark game was being played out between the RSS and Karyakartas of BJP versus Digvijay Singh and Sandeep Dikshit. On the one hand BJP reduced the role of National players – Modi and Amit Shah – outwardly but ceded more control behind the scenes. Congress adopted the opposite approach of their State leaders being upfront while giving the maximum leeway to the grassroot workers on ground. Key issues of farmers distress and unemployment were meshed with the blanket call of change for the sake of it by Congress as exemplified by its slogan “ Samay Hai Badlav ka ( it is time for change ) .” The pressing concerns of women’s safety and malnutrition were swept away in the overarching campaign of BJP about the TINA factor and hinting if “It ain’t broke, don’t fix it” in its slogan“ Maaf karo Maharaj ( Let status quo remain).”

A win for either is not the end of the matter. In fact, it is the beginning of a bigger war. Shivraj winning a fourth term would only buy peace till Lok Sabha elections- irrespective of the results his position becomes untenable in the state. Grapevine said that the game plan of RSS – BJP was to get the party to win and let Shivraj lose.The metaphor of scorpion on a Shivling was equally applicable to him. That would release the anger to reduce the blowback for Lok Sabha 2019 .Lower voting in CM’s constituency Budhni- that too in the face of a strong candidate like Arun Yadav , the PCC chief before Kamalnath could be in line with that.

Shivraj losing and party winning too will not sort out matters – it’ll only be a damage control , a temporary truce and the state unit might implode. Congress winning convincingly would indicate a bigger and faster revival of the party. A Congress win by a minor margin would indicate a that it is on the right track-having learnt the lessons from Gujarat. Congress losing by a minor margin too would call for surgery albeit a minor one. For , if they can’t get past the post with this team, the approach has to be changed , not the team. A major loss of Congress would require an overhaul-a major surgery -that too instantly – an amputation.

The politics of MP has clues for Politics of the entire heartland. Its politics is impacted by and in turn it impacts that of U.P., Rajasthan ,Maharashtra, Gujarat, Jharkhand , Chhattisgarh , and Telangana . A victory would pave a way for Mahagathbandhan for the Congress – a national alliance. A Shivraj victory would push Congress towards a series of Mahingathbandhan – separate tie ups with regional parties statewise -a federal coalition.

It is not a landmark but a watershed election- will only permit reform but no major change. Routine elections are merely transitional but watershed elections are reformatory. Either which way, this is the maximum that Madhya Pradesh elections have impacted the national politics Ever.