WINNING BATTLES , LOSING WAR – COVID M.P.

( Citizens’ White Paper – Corona 1.0 )

At the outset the governments – both at the centre and in the state- looked at the COVID crisis as just another battle. PM said that even Mahabharat was won in 18 day and hence 21 day lockdown should take care of it .Taking a cue Shivraj saw it as an opportunity to emerge as a superman than a villian by going solo for over a month. One battle led to another , one lockdown followed another and now it is beyond debate that it is both a war and a crisis – in livelihood and lives repectively. By all estimates it is going to take from one to three years to turn the tide ,if at all. Just as in a war there have been and will be a series of battles and like a calamity there would be a sequence of crisis. It is thus necessary to audit the performance in initial battles and opening crisis to see the preparadness for winning the war and converting the calamity to a boon. Madhya Pradesh being a region which hasn’t faced major wars nor encountered many calamities faces a tougher challenge than most. A look aspectwise will give an idea of the likely outcome.

POLITCS

Positive –

• Apolitical stance by all parties for Covid , Ram Mandir , China etc.
• Many Politicians carried out relief work in their individual capacities too.

Grey-

• Admitting people from principlal opposition instantly without screening , cooling off.

Dark-

• From pinning Opponents to crushing them –

Our take- Politics in the state has gone from bad to worse- from dark to dirty .

BJP

Positive–

• Bringing in a new President marking a change in guard

Grey—

• Scindia ,Shivraj , Naraz (disgruntled),High Command , state unit besides regional faction(s) / Kailash/Mendola/ Bisen .Vijay Shah .Gopal bhargave, / Narottam ;
• BJP cadre found wanting in Covid service.

Dark –

• People like Aindal Singh Kansana camping for 2 mths in Bhopal.; over 50 Mlas camped in the capital during the first three months of corona period – instead of serving in the field.
• No Ministers in -charge of districts.

Our take- These are evident factions- more BJP factions will emerge post by polls. ; Congress has lesser factions as of now. If they persist , it could turn out the biggest mistake of BJP ever – people would forgive corruption ,( even in Simhastha ) but not covid clumsiness .

RSS

Positive

• Taking stock of what Swayam Sewaks did in Covid 1.0.

• Engaging retired teachers to help students with backlog;

• Focus on environment and labour issues too ;

Grey

• RSS Swayam Sewaks missing in action during Covid 1.0- particula rly in the first three months.

Dark-

• Swayamsevaks do nothing much for migrant labour despite the SarSanghchaalak exhorting them to help many times.

Our take- Now that they’ve got 2.5 out of three major demands (Ram Temple , 370 and triple talaaq), it is time that they do more selfless service than the government. Else, they’re merely facilitating Plutocracy, oligarchy.

CONG

Positive-

• Bringing in a more heavyweight in-charge in Mukul Wasnik.
• Appointing Congress district chiefs in 14 poll bound areas;
• Rajgar do Abhiyan – Associating Digvijay with youth;
• Kamlnath interacting continuously with mlas virtually inCovid 1.0 .
• Leading in written politics- the Congress’ traditional strength. Letter writing to various People / bodies; Blogs, Newspaper articles , twitter , written replies of VS questions , written record of delivery of schemes et al.

Grey-

• Suspending the appointment of new office bearers midway through.

• Laxman Singh’s comment about restraint on public display of Ram Bhakti

• Hanuman Puja before Ram Temple ; Krishna -Arjuna poster with Kamlnath as latter on Janmashthmi / Adress on the eve of independence day14 Aug

• Dark- Its workers still crossing over

• Our take- Setting the agenda- BJP left with reacting via.Shivarj shown on Aaj Tak on Janamashthmi ; forced to bring out local Sankalp patra etc. This should be the last time when Congress gives tickets to those from ideological opposite – without a cooling off period-at least six months ( more than equal to the minimum period for a non-mla minister to be elcted ; ideally one year or more ).Take this opportunity to groom second line of leadership across the state.

ELECTORAL

Positive- Mayor by direct election –

Grey-

• Delimitations reversed.
• Bhopal’s Municipal bifurcation annulled.

Dark- Allowing politicians as administrators in cooperatives-

Our take- There could be a court intervention.Moreover,saying that BJP is always ready for elections is like always preparing for an exam – never syllabus / quiz / out of the box thinking..All the running around is mostly to stay in the same place or be the best among like minded ; never unique overall. Thankfully cooperative banks too coming under RBI may bring some sanity. Politicians as adminstrators and administrators as politicians in MP .

LEGISLATIVE

Positive – Law to ensure youth of MP get Jobs

Grey – Shame on the opposition for relenting to postpone /curtail VS

Dark – Cancelling VS on the pretext of Corona;

Our take- Pro-tem speaker- exceeded his mandate.The proposed bill at the centre for making at least 150 days of LS in a year should be brought in M.P. too.

GOVERNANCE

Positive

• Assigning specific tasks to Group of ministers.

Grey

• State Planning commission merged into School of governance
• Narottam announces enquiry into transfer posting .
• Asking Congress ministers to vacate ; selectively
• Enquiry committees against Congress ministers
• No ministers made Incharge of districts.
• Income tax of Ministers /Mlas to be paid by government.

Dark

Narottam announces enquiry into transfer posting .

• Our take- Gimmickry– How can you prove corruption in transfers ? Would you include the turncoats too or the transfers by Jyoriradotya’s recommendations / letter ? ; Cover shelling to slip own men below it . Yogi goverenment has discontinued paying In come taxes of its l egi slators.Shivaraj basically trying to give them lollypops for keeping in good humour.

All the dark traits of Shivraj 3.0 have reemerged and fastracked . Set backs – HC staying the statutory appointments of Kamlnath till a future date; 3500 cr announcements in poll bound areas with as low as 1000/- budget allocation in some of them.More money spent on the paper it was printed on than the task. From Tokenism / Symbolism governance to JhunnJhuna – cum-Lollypop GOBARNANCE. ( “Gobar” nance)

CABINET 3.0

Positive–

• Shivraj from 1-10 to merely first among equals.

Grey–

• Divide Between regions further enhanced

• Virutal cabinet meets– half baked Virutal Cabinet – only for collective / best ; must be followed by 20 min. each of unique / original for each minister-that which concerns only one department.

• Governance would suffer – Ministers decisions should be in principle; there’s no money high stakes

Dark –

• Inability to formulate cabinet a sign of weakness- couldn’t hold it till RS elections fearing sabotage.

Our take –

• Illegal , immoral , unethical, unprincipled ;Overall observation about the p ocess is that :

• Shivraj- Has cut his losses ( Vish piya –Swallowed poison)

• Scindia – 230 % gain – From 6 to 14 ministers-in Kamlnath and Shivraj cabinet respectively.

• Narottam– Downsized and put backstage till bypolls – for crisis management and dirty tricks department . In the next round too his aim would be to grab deputy CM position; could even throw his weight behind Tomar as CM . Mishra may also play the Brahmin card- get Gopal Bhargava , VD Sharma on Board-–as long as his number two position is guaranteed..

• Narendra Tomar –Could barely manage to get one of his acolytes as minister of state ; trying to be friendly with Scindia too for becoming universally acceptable in case of regime change- as a stop gap arrangement

• Kailash Vijayvargiya-Couldn’t get his right hand man – Mendola in…Waiting for Cabinet 4.0 post by polls to not merely get a berth but also a key department for Ramesh.

• Gopal Bhargava ,Vijay Shah – Have snatched the positions.

Losers

• Uma Bharti – Expressed her resevations … No regional , cultural balance ; pressure for the next reshuffle- placated meanwhile by m aking Pradhyman Lodhi as Chairperson.
• Pralhad Patel– Couldn’t even get his own brother

• K usumaria homecoming to damage control by posts in corporations ,board post bypolls.

• Paused till polls – Rajendra Shukla , Ramesh Mendola , Sanjay Pathak , Bisen , Ajay Vishnoi, Rampal Singh , Paras Jain etc.

Our take– Killed critical thinking by daily events ; neither transparency not accountability .A sort of Shivraj – Narottam duopoly. Cabinet 0.0 ( Shivraj Alone ) was an insult to the people of the state Cabinet 1.0 was an insult to the people of Gwalior Chambal ; Cabinet 3.0 is an insult to the remaining regions of the state. BJP has assumed that at least 5 of the sitting ministers would lose – so they’ve been given the posts to push their luck ( Same problem was with Kamalnath – too heavyweight for a CM ).

ADMN

Positive –

• Patta to all at the place of occupation.
• Panch Parameshwar scheme revived – for minor public works in rural areas –
• Gandagi Bhagao yojana

Grey –

• Government employees kept in good humour by releasing some arrears .
• Shuddh ke liye yuddh paused
• Encroachment drive suspended.

Dark –

• Transfers made from heavy industry in Vallabh bhavan to clusters of cottage industry in BJP /RSS HQ.

Our take– Fully dedicated administration ; no space for neutrality .

***

MINISTRYWISE

HEALTH

Positive –

• High recovery rate.
• Dr. Goyal as health Commissioner Good doubling the amount of insurance of a sanitary workers- from 1 L to 2 L.
• To distribute oximeters

Grey – Covid corruption – 50 cr to a private hospital in Bhopal during Lockdown 1.0 whereas a 500 cr. New Building of Hamidia hospital was not activated due to a lack of a few crore worth of oxygen facilities.

• 80 K bed mismatch ; 10 % oxygen shortage ;

Dark

• Not giving salary to Medical Interns; No monetary incentives to paramedics , doctors etc.
• 6000 samples retested covid-duplication worth 1.5 cr.
• Highest death rate – can be mitigated only if the deceased are old and sick ; else system failure

Our take– The health effort would be considered success if the recovered patients are are old, sick, poor , women , children esp. from congested areas, and frontline cororna workers.Need to be doubly cautious in Covid 2.0. Complacent attitude – Kuch Nahin hai types – avoidable (viz. Narrottam Mishra – need two ministers-one dedicated to Covid )

HOME

Positive

• FIR’s from Home-pilot project
• NLIU stu dent for free l egal aid during Covid.

Grey

• Shivraj Reverse swing video-
• Enhanced crime – no anticipation of post covid scenario.

Dark-

• Strange that all the absconding Mafiosi are being caught with ease
• Vikas Dubey entrapment…
• Honeytrap cases could get bail
• Our take– Shivraj Reverse swing video- Government should’ve traced the source alongwith FIR on Digvijay ; Justice or Shutting their Mouths and/or extraction- Jeetu Soni not speaking about Honey trap. Law & Order ( Cong / BJP) – Sand , land mafia in jail in congress ; transfer –posting lobby in Congress ; racketeers-adulteration racket out in BJP.

AGRICULTURE

Positive

• Krishak Sahayaka mooted.
• Efforts onto include farmers up to 2.5 acres – small / marginal in Sambal
• Government mulling forming an insurance company for farm Insurance

Grey

• Fertiliser thru pvt . traders raised to 45% from 20% Any trader can buy stuff from any mandi across the state.(later extended to the country via News agri bills)

• Storage allowed to private Mandis

• Ba smati Geo tag dispute with Punjab ; Sparring on Sharbati wheat with others too

• No money to distribute as zero percent interest .

• A drive to recover earlier loans. Agriculture .

• Gram and Moong p rocu rement limit raised from 15 Tonne / hectare to 20 tonnes – at Scindia’s behest

• Elctricity subsidy removed.

Dark

• Failure in 50 L tonne wheat drenched – Damoh SDM admitted as much that transport , storage was directed simultaneously- no transport minister.

• Flower and vegetables farmers sank in monsoons and lockdown.

• Murmurs about misdoings in Harda- Agri minister Kamal Patel’s constituency – during wheat procurement.

• U rea Shortage.

• Spurious seeds

• Our take – GO vernment forming an insurance company is a good idea if the sum of assurance- cum- insurance is equal or more than previous govt-; raising the limit of private traders had the potential of l increase in blackmarketing- proven subsequently in the kharif season; Private Mandis couls l ead to centralization and hoarding-politically useful for funds during elections ; provision only for interest free loans is good for those who are not defaulters;Almost nothing was brought at Gram , Maize at MSP by private Mandis ; agri Budget al most halved -whereas the overall budget has only been reduced 17 %; Loan waiver stopped and removal of el ctricity subsidy alonwith blackmarketed urea and spurious seeds has enhanced input costs .Overall Money in rural economy less by 5K cr; both in and around agri – Waiting for Suicides and / or firing ?- suicides have begun… The vote angle ruthlessly m easures the impact of single loan waived or 20 small interest free loans.. Repeated lack of leadership – 3 days notice for Nisarga typhoon was a godsend for dark economy 50 L tonnes of drenched much of it due to lack of transport. Absence of a transport minister may have worsened the impact (5 lakh tones (out of 1. 25cr tone production) . All of it would be auctioned for liquour and other businesses at th rowaway prices. If the go vernment claims of having p umped even greater funds is trues-Why not upload it on the website?

CIVIL SUPPLIES

Positive – Ration supplied even to those without cards

Grey – PDS scam

Dark – Supplying inedible rice to tribals during lockdown – Balaghat , Seoni.

Our take –The irregularities in the Covid period assume even greater significance… need to give exemplary and quick punishment.

FINANCE

Positive

• Atma Nirbhar Abhiyan – with Women SHG’ over 1000cr work orders – masks ,PPE kits , making home ration –incl. factories , Lakshmi Ganesh Idols ; cosmetics , poultry , public transport etc.

Grey – Overall 22 K crore wo rth of work/ relief – touching 3.45 cr. People.; Flooding / crop loss – 10 K cr.

• No usurious interest rates , only licensed money lender –jalali Byaaj.

Grey

• No Budget presented -vote on account.
• Borrowing limit raised from 3 to 5 – extra 18K cr. –

Dark :

Non- disclosure of expenses during COVID

Our take – Point is that borrowing ought to be specified and Justified– market loans only for growth . Check on Usurious interest is extension of Nath’s scheme on Tribal areas… No harm but must acknowledge it…. Like you’re allowed varying percentages upto 50% – in intellctual by giving credit.

LABOUR

Positive

• Distinguishing between jobs / unskilled and employment
• Selfies instead of thumb impression for attendance.
• Constitution over 3000 self help groups (to add to the tally of 1450 ) and give them covid work ( of course there is an angle of giving work to own. )
• 10 K interest free loan to Hawkers

Grey-

• labour reforms
• 5.87 L migrant labourers came back-150cr spent on transport. Av.3000/.

Dark

• Employment loss up by 48% (CMIE ) ; Registered unemployed rise from 21 L to 28 L during Covid
• Closing Shramvasi Schools.

Our take – More like factory reforms than labour reforms.

INDUSTRY

Positive

• MSME intent- proactive approach
• Reviving Shut Industries
• One district one product
• Proposal to m ake Pithampur as API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient ) hub

Grey

• Castigating magnificent M.P. -saying that a few Industrialists
• Atmanirbhar – Meaning to touch everyone esp poor with some scheme
• Vocal for local – trying to get those industries to come fro which local skills available.

Dark

• Even the worst hit sectors in the state viz. Tourism -not given stimulus.

• Our take – The change of definition of MSME- bringing even those with 250cr turnover in it -has brought 95% industries in M.P. in its realm. Calibrate the negotiations by counting material skills ( land , water , electricity etc. )and Human resources ( Skilled and unskilled ) to discuss bringing in Capital and technology. It is not about either / or – a rational complementary approach is needed. Extrapolate to One state one product too for Unique products, niche services.Not m erely p roduct but also organic produce; differentiate both time and space – one year one product viz. for the next three years focus on Food processing and medical e conomy value addition.

MINING

Positive

A mining protection force proposed.

Grey

Sand Mining policy suspended till monsoon.

Dark

• Massive illegal mining during lockdown – involving clashes ,even deaths .

Our take – Since there was no legal mining during lockdown, the auctions post bypolls must bring more revenues as there will be more sand,

EXCISE

Positive

• Govt. amenable to a reduced revenue target in the light of Covid lockdown

Grey

• Small and / or short term liquor tender .

Dark

• Involving teachers and women in liquor shops.

Our take – Eventually, if the total receipts are less than 25% tax cut demanded by o riginal contracters – it means money going to BJP workers than state coffers.

WATER RESOURCES

Positive

• 20 K Mou with Narmada basin project with power fin corp to fully utilise Narmada water by 2024.

• Disaster mgmt. teams activated for flood relief preventively.

Grey

• Sanver irrigation scheme – 2400cr – the single biggest as riskiest.

Dark

• Narmada backwater fill the dams in pre-Monsoon .No move with Gujarat to mitigate it.

Our take –

• Saanver scheme is also the riskiest – double check its utility.While it was odd to include water resources in initial cabinet during COVID, that shouldn’t be downgraded post bypolls. M.P becomes an internal colony when richer states like Gujarat , Mahrashtra take more water and electricity while areas of M.P- mostly tribal – submerge without any compensation.

***

EDUCATION

Positive

• Steps in Virtual Education.
• ;Mentor–Tutor Idea mooted (Shiksha-Deeksha)

Grey

• Over enthusiasm in implementing the New Education policy of the Central govt.
• Education -20 K school with less than 20 students and poor approach roads – rumoured to be merged.( Rajya Shikshan Sansthan )

Dark

• Late Governor trying to gain control of higher edu – using art 52

Our take – Mentor- tutor proposal is p rogressive. Governor p roactive – perhaps at the behest of RSS. He ought to be in control only for specialised , niche subjecte – research , Science… The New Central education policy should be given a Madhyapradesshi Spin. MP must have virtual- cum- distance model.

COOPERATIVES

Positive –

• Preven ting Cooperative banks from collapsingby refinancing.

Dark

• Allowing MPs, Mlas on Administrative posts in cooperatives.

• Our take – Virtually a licence to loot –these are meant for grassroots politics .

***

URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Positive

• Expediting Mini Smart cities.

Grey

Metro rail Deadline marked for aug 2023;

Dark

Rushing the Master plans in covid Lockdowns.

Our take – The entire Urban Development scenario of the state has to be revisted for a Post COVID scenario.

ENERGY

Positive- Electricity bills deferred / removed for smaller shopkeepers , traders.

Grey- 100 Units free scheme withdrawn

Our take – Good but not good enough…damage control of backlash due to abolition of 100 unit free scheme of Kamalnath which had benefitted over 2.5 cr people- by announcing suspension of high bills(not cancellation)

FORESTS

Positive –

• Allowing / inviting private players for commercial forestry on vacant land under forest area

Dark- Amendment to the Environment act

Our take – The former could be game changer while the latter may be disastrous for ecology.

MEDIA

Positive –

• Carried out reportage among COVID risk.
• Exhorting people to buy from local shop- so that the money remains in the city.;

Grey –

• Increasing cover price, reducing pages in some newspapers.
• No analytical pieces , long stories ,Editorial series on Covid management in the state.

Dark–

• Laying off the journalists.
• No hyperlocal stories on covid

• Our take –The pre- existing weakness were heightened – lack of indepth reporting and Good editorials.

JUDICIARY

Positive –

Stayed the summary removal of People appointed by Kamalnath on Statutory positions.

Grey

• Missed the opportunity of a Landmark Judgment on Resigning Mla’s contesting immediately on the ticket of p rincipal opposition.

• Our take – Took no suo moto cognisance of Covid Mismanagement in COvid 1.0 . Only in Covid 2.0 has banned more than 100 persons in bypoll rallies.

MISCELLANEOUS

Positive– Job to one female Aanganwadi in case of Covid casualties.

DATA MANAGEMENT

Positive

• Data protection- only NIC would make government sites.

Grey

• Hosting them on a common serverishalf baked
• Our take – Let Covid data of government and Private bodies be stored cumulatively / collectively with govt ; individual data stays with the hospitals with back up storage. Prevents remote holistic misuse.

Uptil now , in Covid 1.0 Madhya Pradesh Government failed to anticipate the issues of migrant labourers ,locusts , bumper crop et al. All lockdown benefits went to leaders , party members and vote bank-Apna, Apno Ka ,Apne jaison ka Saath aur Vikaas – often by harming others , different groups , opponents. In the process winning a series of small battles but overall war poised at a knife’s edge- any further continuance on the current approach in Covid 2.0 will ensure defeat in COVID war.