2024 LOK SABHA POLLS PROJECTION

Shashidhar Kapur

First , about the percentage of Votes – Only marginal increase in BJP votes , if at all : from 38 pc in 2019 to around 40 pc … Proportional decrease in the votes of allies .. Overall , NDA votes will not reach within striking distance of targeted 50 pc plus … They would hover around 45 pc -same as in 2019 …The tricky stuff of predicting seats- with minimal data in the public domain as against big data of poll agencies and govt. bodies – is a leap of faith…That said , BJP on its own will remain below the halfway mark in worst case scenario ( Below 272 seats )- In best case too ,it cannot cross 363 seats with absolutely no chance of reaching the target of 370 seats… So the range of BJP on its own is -between less than 272 and less than 363 – in worst and best cases… As for NDA , in worst case , it’ll get less than 353 ( tally in 2019) and even in best case scenario it’ll fall short of the 370 seat mark ;with no chance of nearing 400…Does that mean that in the best case scenario if BJP gets 362(less than 363 ) its allies will get at most 7 seats ( to remain
under 370) ?The answer is Yes ,in all likelihood… A landslide for BJP alone will mean a near wipeout of smaller allies …To sum , BJP alone will not muster 364 or more seats – two thirds majority needed for major changes in the Constitution with NDA allies too ,it’ll be extremely difficult as that brings the risk of
backfiring in subsequent assembly elections wherever junior parties at Centre are holding power in states.

( BASED ON CSDS SURVEY & ABP -C VOTER OPINION POLL)

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