Gareebon Ki Indira Gandhi

Shashidhar Kapur

Indira and Sanjay Gandhi ; Modi & Amit Shah ; Maruti and Bullet train ; Indira is India & Abki bar Modi Sarkar ; Acronyms & slogauneering…The resemblance is uncanny and in some ways eerie…Indira had uneasy relations with the army , Modi inducted an Army chief with a grey area into his cabinet immediately after retirement ( without a cooling off period ) ; she gagged the media , he is asphyxiating it ; she disliked the judiciary , he too is not particularly fond of it ; Indira wanted a committed bureaucracy , Modi wants a dedicated civil service ; she bore animosity towards the RSS ; he hates the civil society ; Indira preferred bossy federalism , Modi seems to favour coercive federalism ; She communicated directly with the masses over and above the parliament and party , he does it too …I’d called Modi – Adhkacharon Ki Indira Gandhi ( Indira Gandhi of the mediocres or more appropriately ,Indira Gandhi of the neo middle class ) – when he took over. It means that Modi is a mirror image – and not the image – of Indira ( Just as Vajpayee was of Nehru ).If his first six months in office are anything to go by , my label seems to stick .Let’ s review in some detail :

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Globetrotting breathlessly ; WTO – one step forward , two steps backward ; tomtoming the return of Keralite nurses but hush hush on the case of 39 missing Indians in the Middle East ; pussyfooting on Chinese incursions- they came in 25 km – the deepest since 1962 ; blow hot, blow cold on Pakistan – those areas too came in the line of fire which were not shelled even during 1971 war ; diluting the nuclear liability.

My take – It is an interesting spin to have people’s diplomacy but not at the cost of Public diplomacy.All sound and fury propped up Modi’s image more than that of India – at the cost of public exchequer .Moreover , sidelining Sushma will mean that there will be work to rule in the foreign ministry when it comes to follow up.If one had to point out the single long term loss , it wuld be agreeing to WTO with a peace clause ( Only the naive would not know that there is nothing called a peace clause in global power game. ).Climbdown on nuclear liability comes a close second.

POLITYLegislation -While the previous legislations – to which BJP was the party – are pending. ( Food security Bill , Lok Pal bill ,women reservation bill ) new ones have been rushed through ordinances .Sunset legislation is a welcome step.

Parliament- Lok Sabha functioning full time almost after a decade. Not yielding political space viz, for LOP ; PM not coming to the parliament often enough .

Cabinet Formation -Picking talent among the state leaders ( Parikkar); Including communally tainted ministers; Strangely those with domain knowledge of certain areas were not put in those ministries in the first place or shifted elsewhere in the reshuffle ( Ravishakar Prasad from Law ; Javdekar from I & B ; Dr. Harshwardhan from health ). Governance -All major policies in PMO ; gubernatorial postings thrust ; Handpicking bureaucrats ( even via ordinances )

Independence Day speech – Make in India , building toilets ,Adarsh village. Elections -Dragging Delhi elections ; Amit shah style of pushing allies ( Haryana , Punjab , Maharashtra ) Reforms : Only a token statement about clearing the parliament from criminally charged elements ; no electoral reforms either.

My take : It is disconcerting – even authoritarian – to sideline any questioning voice – ( no LOP , no CVC , no Lokpal ). Not coming to the parliament is undermining institutions , if not subverting democracy .While it is a welcome step to raise the most pressing social concerns on Independence Day but public issues like foreign policy and direction of reforms too should’ve found mention . Cherrypicking bureaucrats and dealing directly with them – many a time sidestepping the concerned minister – is ushering in a pseudo spoils system ( Just as it was a pseudo Presidential campaign ).

ECONOMY

Planning – Disbanding the Planning Commission and rechristening it Neeti /Niti Ayog.

Industry – FDI in insurance , Defence ; Land acquisition Bill ; labour reforms initiated

Banking -Jan Dhan ; Incorporating CEO’s of private sector banks

Infrastructure – Digital India / 100 smart cities

Agriculture – Reducing subsidies ; bonus on support price removed .; introducing GM crop trials surreptitiously

Budgets- Thali Budget with something for everybody ; fare hike before the Railway Budget

My take – Planning Commission being replaced by Niti Ayog is cosmetic – Instead of disbanding it should’ve been expanded -Planning without policy is lame and policy without planning is blind ; Digital India without intellectual India is a double edged sword ;digitisation is democratic and empowering in developed / educated communities but is a tool for control in developing / semi- literate societies.Instead of introducing at one go , a differentiated approach with safeguards is recommended; all pleasing Thali budgets mean insufficient resources for everybody .

DEFENCE / INTERNAL SECURITY
Aggressive response to Pak on the border skirmishes ; hardening stance on Naxalism

My take – Aggressive stance sans talks in conjunction retains status quo ; tough approch on Naxalism without simultaneous concessions may contain the problem temporarily but but will not solve it ( Naxals have become more aggressive in Kerala , Telangana )

JUDICIARY

Judicial commission for appointments ; Scuttling Subramaniam’s appointment.

My take -Judicial advocacy and judicial activism spilling over to advocacy and activism needed to be checked but the manner was rude.Weeding out Subhramaniam in bad taste.

MEDIA

Communicating directly with people esp. on radio ( a la Obama ) and also on social media but keeping mainstream media at a distance ; More interactions with the public directly on social media ; not taking media along on foreign trips

My take- Media trials and attempts to manufacture consent were asking for a correction but the manner lacks sophistication.Communicating via radio and social media is a welcome move but ignoring mainstream media hints at a lack of confidence. No interviews , gag on ministers and not taking media along even on foreign tours signals a Communist state like approach – govt. is only interested in public relations but not public explanation – in a democracy both are needed. Instead of addressing the real issues of Cross media ownership politics- media nexus etc. giving media a short shrift is barking up the wrong tree.

EDUCATION
A Cabinet minister who is not even a graduate ; the minister of state is accused of fudging marksheet ; doing away with the 4 yr. course in DU ; Guru Parv on Teacher’s day ; Batra’s and other saffron inputs in texts ; replacing German with Sanskrit as the third language.

My take – Saffronisation replacing leftism is one shortcoming replacing the other.Unless the uniqueness of the Indian mind as also its limitations are addressed simultaneously this flip flop would continue. Slipping on this front is the greatest danger – it may result in India’s demographic dividend converting to demographic distress .

HEALTH

Initiating Health insurance for all ; talking of preventive healthcare , health assurance.

My take – Poor public health is perhaps the biggest challenge facing India.This is one area where perhaps both the direction and intention seems correct , minor concerns notwithstanding .

SOCIAL

Swatch Bharat campaign ; the fringe Hindutva elements becoming aggressively vocal

My take : Swatch Bharat is a great campaign – it may mark the beginning of volunteerism in India .Decentralised communal , linguistic polarisation has been crowdsourced to lower rung party functionaries and associated groups. My guess is Modi will speak up only after the current electoral cycle is over I.e after Delhi Elections – by which time he would’ve milked the passions for all their worth – at least for now. It may resurface at the end of the year/ next year prior to UP/Bihar elections but with ever diminishing returns.

CULTURE

Appointing hardcore saffronites to head ICCR and other cultural bodies ; getting touchy about anything to do with traditions

My take : A case of claiming to protect the traditions without exactly knowing what the traditions are … Trying to fuse culture and religion instead of syncretism

ENVIRONMENT

Giving clearances en masse without simultaneously reviving the degraded and clearing the polluted .

My take – Without bringing in Green Accounting / Carbon crediting, clearances may dent the gains of Make in India .Delhi’s air is once again as polluted /even more than it was two decades a go when govt. was forced to introduce CNG.

Overall ,one has to evaluate and judge on the basis of the template of a party , in the light of its manifesto and poll promises .First things first , in the absence of political. / electoral reforms all other reforms would prove to be incremental / marginal / symbolic.That most of the good stuff is the continuation of UPA programmes is no issue – for , there is no point in reinventing the wheel.However, the major flaw is that no matching small public / social steps are being taken in conjunction with big ticket announcements – which augurs for a stumbling / fumbling approach.Just as in the earlier avatar BJP/ NDA were a roll back govt. due to lack of rigour , now they are a U- turn govt.due to lack of vision.

What does all this mean for India ,Modi & BJP ?

Basically , having smothered opposition both from outside and within the party , in the short term Modi would ease out or cut to size any present or future contenders .Advani and Rajnath have already been managed – Shivraj Chauhan and Dr. Raman Singh would be dealt with anytime soon.

About the mid term ( by the end of 2016 ) two scenarios are being projected – one school of thought is that all the rhetoric would fizzle out by 2016 and the comparatively moderate Rajnath / Advani / Shivraj camp would regain space ; the other view is that Modi-Shah duo would further tighten the grip on party & govt – esp. if they do well in Bihar / UP elections when the BJP / NDA may match / overtake Congress / UPA in Rajya Sabha too.I’m in sync with the latter view- in fact I’d go even further and say that Modi-Shah team will have a stranglehold on the party irrespective of 2016 results.The hardcore organisations who’ve given some sort of moratorium till 2016 will try to become active but will be put in place by the duo ;the control of RSS too will loosen – as it happened in Gujarat .

In the best case long term scenario, there would be growth sans equity ; a lot of infrastructure would be created but would be under-utilised ; some employment would be generated but will not be sustainable and a few token schemes for poor and minorities would be floated .However , the worst case scenario would mean that in the race to show economic development , India’s future would be mortgaged – irreversible environmental mess ,plundering of mineral resources and degrading of workforce . An army of unemployed , poorly employed , underemployed would come up and the demographic dividend would be scuttled .Besides , polarising tactics would leave long lasting scars on society .

Thus the mid -long term scene too is likely to be a mirror image of the latter Indira era -Wherein Indira & Sanjay Gandhi were the Dictator & rowdy;Modi & Amit Shah would be the Autocrat & street fighter…in that phase Indira transformed from Goongi Gudiya to Ghunni Budhiya ( from a dumb doll to scheming hag ) , Modi would convert from Chaiwala Pracharak to Chabukwala Sanchalak ( From a tea vendor propagandist to Whiplash Ringmaster) … In the end , Advani may be left to echo the words of Kamraj – who having propped up Indira Gandhi later regretted it saying “A small man’s big mistake .”Advani who saved Modi from sacking may term it as ” a big man’s gravest folly”.

P.s-I Kamalnath has called it a govt on treadmill – running all the time but heading nowhere; we would’ve preferred a govt on escalator and can only hope that we should not end up with one that is moonwalking.

P.S.-II: It is said that a country gets the govt.it deserves – My take is that a nation must also sometimes get the govt . it aspires.For the past decade ,the country was hoping for the heir apparent to grow up and now the nation is waiting for the incumbent to settle down in Delhi … yet another eerie feeling is that just as the prince refused to grow up , the incumbent may fail to settle down ;and , just like the prince brought Congress to its knees the incumbent may leave BJP with egg on its face. .

P.S – III: :Some three decades ago , a group of people (friends of Reliance ) ushered in crony capitalism; 2014 is a step further – a section of people mostly. Gujarati NRI’s and a few corporates have managed to introduce. crony politics.

PS -IV :In an earlier article , I’d called Modi as Dhoni of Indian politics – I stand by that too .While excelling at governance and minor / short term facets Modi would let India down in Major / Long term facets – just as Dhoni has excelled at shorter versions but disappointed in Tests.

P.S. – V : Committed bureaucracy requires the civil servants to be committed to the agenda of a leader/ party than a commitment to the institutions ; Dedicated bureaucracy expects a bureaucrat to be dedicated to the hidden agenda / mission of the leader/ party than being the guardians of Constitution,

P.S -VI : Everyone seems to go ga ga over the fact that a Chiawala has become the PM or a Subedar’s son has become the army chief or a gardner’s son has become the president of the student union of Stephen’s- What kind of reverse snobbery is this ? While on the one hand it does indicate that talent is finding a way up but an even greater indication is that there is something terribly mediocre about such a system .In developed communities the only way a chap can break all class barriers in a lifetime is thru science / education and the only path wherein a man can overcome all caste / social hurdles in one lifetime is via sainthood/spirituality .In developed communities and evolved societies anybody not from the above categories and yet reaching the top involves some corruption/ immorality , crime/ sin ; by the same token the fact that such persons have risen to the top in our community / society implies that either we have grey areas or we are mediocres – or both.

P.S. – VII : Though the general belief is that winning Bihar & U.P. Assembly polls would be the ultimate test for Modi-Shah combine , in my view the real test is West Bengal . BJP’s success there would mean defeating the ideological adversary -the left and extreme left /Mamta and hence becoming truly pan Indian. My take is that just as the duo barely scraped thru its second toughest exam – J & K , it ‘ll fumble in W. Bengal too. Just as BJP’s foray polarised polity in J & K something similar would happen in W. Bengal . Thus while Mamata would slip and BJP would make inroads the Left and Congress would have a revival of sorts.

P.S. – VIII : In the 90’s IMF held a gun to our head and India had to open its economy , in 2014 WTO placed a knife on our heart and safeguards of our trade were lowered .Just as the impact of succumbing to the IMF became apparent only a decade later when the growth had little trickle down effect and inclusive measures had to be introduced , the effect of WTO climbdown too would be clear only after 10 yrs when India may be forced to introduce participatory steps for development- by Panchyati raj ,Swaraj or whatever. .However , the danger is that by that time the demographic dividend of youthful population would’ve been compromised , if not scuttled.If that scenario comes true, India would’ve lost its once in a millennium demographic advantage and emerge at most as a middling power .

P.S. – IX : Though Obama is not Robert Clive of 1757 , he is no saint either. Almost the entire transaction was about technology and capital – without corresponding concessions for India’s resources ( Human and organic ) – …No increase in work visas , continuing pressure on Indian pharmas , insisting on reducing farm subsidies , pollution control etc … It is thus another step in neo / resource colonisation which began in the 1990s. One must be aware that U.S. is a pluralistic country with limited diversity ( a melting pot ) while India is a diverse nation with limited plurality ( Salad bowl ) thus any transaction has to be complementary and supplementary at the same time.Without that the relations would be cyclical and seasonal.

P.S. – X : India needs a different / Original approach – more westernised in Public matters and more Indianised in social affairs .The Cong / UPA regime was Adhpaka ( half baked ) in social affairs and the BJP /NDA rule is Adhkachara ( mediocre) in public/ intellectual matters.No problem with it , only that all this talk of becoming a Superpower and Vishwa Guru doesn’t sync -with more of the same approach ,India will only be the world’s Supermarket and Guru Ghantal.